Brazil run-off on a knife edge as Bolsonaro's son leads Lula

Brazil votes on Sunday in a presidential run-off too close to call, with most of the latest polls putting the far-right challenger Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of the left-wing incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — inside the margin of error. The 45-year-old senator's lead has narrowed since a bad-tempered televised debate last weekend, according to France 24.

The stakes run through the economy as much as the politics. Crime and inequality top voters' concerns, and the result will decide who sets tax, spending and trade policy for Latin America's largest economy for the next four years. Neither side has published figures this week that settle the argument over whose programme pays for itself.

For Lula, nearly 81, the question is whether the glow of his earlier presidencies has faded. For Bolsonaro, it is whether voters will overlook the attempted-coup conviction of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was voted out in 2022. The younger Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, has campaigned alongside São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, who joined him at a rally in the city on 18 October.

One battleground is virtual. Brazil has the world's third-biggest user base for Instagram, Facebook and TikTok, and campaigning has poured onto the platforms. Critics have branded Meta — parent company of WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook — the third candidate in the run-off, with Bolsonaro supporters flooding feeds with content. Whether that online barrage converts into votes is one of the campaign's open questions.

Much has changed in Brazil in the four years since the last election, not least the speed at which political argument has moved onto phones. Analysts are divided over how far that shift favours the challenger: his camp's digital reach is clear, but incumbents still command the machinery of government and the loyalty of poorer voters who backed Lula before.

Sunday's count is the test. A margin this tight puts a premium on turnout, and a Bolsonaro victory would return the family name to the presidential palace four years after his father's defeat — and after a conviction his supporters reject and his opponents say disqualifies the movement he now leads.