Gulf states brace for possible return to US-Iran war

Gulf governments are preparing for a possible return to open war between the United States and Iran, as Washington signals fresh strikes and Tehran warns its neighbours they could become targets. The fear, Euronews reported, is of a short but intensive US-Israeli campaign aimed at forcing Iran into concessions, answered by what Tehran calls a devastating response across the region.

President Donald Trump has hinted at further military action, saying the US has knocked the "hell out" of Iran, according to Al Jazeera. Citing senior US officials, the New York Times reported that Washington and Israel have "developed specific plans" for an operation against nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and missile and drone arsenals. Two US aircraft carrier strike groups are in the Arabian Sea, with a third expected by late November, DW reported.

Politics is shaping the timing. Trump posted on October 8 that the US would not attack before the November 3 midterms, citing "productive discussions" with Tehran; the last US strikes came in early September. Israel holds its own election on October 27, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu campaigning on regime change in Iran. Polls show high energy prices from the war are hurting Trump's Republicans.

Tehran says it is ready. Iranian officials told Reuters the country is "preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war". Ali Asghar Shafieian, a media adviser to President Masoud Pezeshkian, told DW that Iran's strategy rests on preserving the regime rather than matching US firepower. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned regional states that cooperation with an attack would bring a "decisive and proportionate response", while posting on X that Iran remains open to diplomacy if Washington shows a sincere desire for "a just solution".

The war began in late February. The US has since maintained a blockade of Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, and European and Middle Eastern foreign ministers met in Istanbul this week for security talks on the strait and the wider crises.

For now the Gulf capitals watch two dates — Israel's vote on Monday and the US midterms a week later — waiting to learn whether diplomacy gets, in Araghchi's words, another chance, or whether the skies over the region fill once more.