Israel vote leaves no winner as Netanyahu bloc loses majority

Tel Aviv — Israel's first election since the October 2023 Hamas attacks has produced no clear winner, with exit polls showing the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot edging ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's alliance but both falling well short of a majority.

Three exit polls published after voting closed at 10pm local time on Tuesday put Eisenkot's bloc on course for 52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, against 50 for Netanyahu's religious right-wing alliance, the Japan Times reported. Netanyahu's Likud remains the largest single party, projected at 24–25 seats against 21–23 for Eisenkot's Yashar.

Both men claim a path to power. Eisenkot declared victory and said the results gave him the first right to form a government, according to Africanews, whose footage showed his supporters in Tel Aviv chanting for Netanyahu to go home. Among those at the Yashar rally was Ohad Ben Ami, a former hostage held by Hamas, who accused the government of abandoning the captives. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar of Likud called the celebrations premature, writing that Likud "is the largest party in Israel".

Al Jazeera reported that its own reading of the network exit polls showed the two blocs tied on 51 seats each, with Arab-led parties outside both coalitions projected to win 18 seats — a tally that could make them kingmakers. Ehab Jabareen, a Palestinian political analyst, told the broadcaster the projections show "a clear weakening of Netanyahu's bloc" but warned against declaring either a Netanyahu victory or the end of his career.

The vote was the first electoral test for Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years, since the 7 October attacks and the wars that followed. Opposition leader Yair Lapid called the result a "crushing defeat" for the prime minister's bloc. The exit polls remain preliminary, and the final picture could still change as votes are counted.

What comes next is a slower contest. Once the final tally is confirmed on November 4, President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders and nominate the candidate he judges best placed to form a government — not necessarily the leader of the largest party. That candidate then has up to 42 days to assemble a coalition of at least 61 seats, or attempt a minority government or power-sharing deal. If every attempt fails, the Knesset dissolves and Israelis return to the polls within 90 days. Until then, the country waits — and Netanyahu, by law, stays on as caretaker.