Record-low turnout sends Bulgaria to presidential run-off

Sofia — Bulgaria will hold a presidential run-off on November 1 after turnout in Sunday's first round fell below 40%, far short of the level needed for an outright winner, DW reported. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must win more than half the valid votes with more than half of eligible voters taking part. Neither condition was met.

The frontrunner is incumbent President Iliana Yotova, 62, whom surveys put at 41-47% of the vote. Yotova took office this year after Rumen Radev stepped down to contest parliamentary elections that made him prime minister. She favours dialogue with Moscow as the path to peace in Ukraine and opposes military aid to Kyiv — positions that mirror Radev's, and a win would strengthen his hand while making her Bulgaria's first elected female president.

Her main challenger is Andrey Gyurov, 50, a former caretaker prime minister polling at 28-31% and backed by the pro-Western opposition. Gyurov is an outspoken critic of Radev's foreign policy and, as caretaker premier in February and March, signed a security cooperation agreement with Kyiv. Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the pro-Russian far-right Vazrazhdane party, stands third on 10-13%. Altogether 27 pairs of candidates contested the first round, nearly half of them openly pro-Kremlin.

The presidency is largely ceremonial, but not powerless: the head of state appoints interim governments in political crises, is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and can veto legislation. In a country that has cycled through repeated elections and coalition breakdowns, those powers matter.

Russia's war in Ukraine hung over the campaign. Four merchant ships were allegedly hit by drones off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast this month, prompting Sofia to seek allied help with maritime security; neighbouring Romania has blamed Moscow for one such attack. Starlink antennas were also set on fire near the capital. Radev's government summoned the Russian ambassador but stopped short of blaming Moscow directly. Energy prices, inflation and corruption also weighed on voters in the EU's poorest member state.

Official results are expected within 48 hours of polls closing, but the arithmetic is already plain: Yotova and Gyurov are set to face each other again on November 1. That vote, and the question of whether Bulgaria tilts towards Moscow or its Euro-Atlantic allies, is the one to watch.